The Physician Shortage Crisis
By Jordan C Kabins, Ph.D., MBA
Introduction
The United States faces a severe physician shortage that threatens to undermine patient care, increase wait times, and strain an already burdened healthcare system. While this problem is not new, recent data indicates that it is worsening at an alarming rate. With an aging population requiring more medical care, fewer new physicians entering the field, and growing dissatisfaction among current doctors, the supply of physicians is struggling to keep pace with demand.
The Numbers: How Severe is the Physician Shortage?
According to the 2024 Physician Workforce Projections, the U.S. is projected to have a shortage of 187,130 physicians by 2037, with 31 out of 35 physician specialties expected to be in deficit. The gap between supply and demand will significantly widen, with overall adequacy falling from 88% in 2027 to just 84% by 2037.
Primary Care Work Force Projections (2024) is particularly at risk. The demand for family medicine physicians is expected to grow by 17,210 full-time equivalents (FTEs) by 2037, while the supply will only increase by 3,760 FTEs, leaving a substantial gap. Similarly, general internal medicine, which serves as the backbone of primary care, is projected to have an adequacy rate of only 76% in 2037.
The crisis is especially acute in rural areas, where physician shortages will be even more pronounced. By 2037, non-metro regions will experience a physician adequacy rate of just 40%, indicating a 60% shortage, compared to a 10% shortage in metro areas.
Specialties in Crisis
While primary care is in critical condition, shortages extend across various specialties. Some of the most affected include:
- Vascular Surgery (64% adequacy, indicating a 36% shortage)
- Thoracic Surgery (66% adequacy)
- Family Medicine (73% adequacy)
- General Internal Medicine (76% adequacy)
- Geriatrics (78% adequacy)
Significant deficits will also exist in high-demand fields like cardiology (81%) and anesthesiology (86%). The only exception is emergency medicine, which is projected to have a surplus (116% adequacy) due to increasing physician interest in this field(Physician Workforce Projections, 2024).
Why is This Happening?
Several key factors are driving the physician shortage:
An Aging Physician Workforce: Nearly one-quarter (23.4%) of physicians are 65 or older, leading to a wave of retirements expected in the coming years(Kelly, 2024). The number of new physicians entering the workforce is insufficient to offset these retirements.
Inadequate Medical Training Pipeline: While medical school graduates are increasing, residency slots remain capped due to outdated government funding limits. International medical graduates (IMGs) also face immigration challenges that restrict their ability to fill these gaps (Malayala etal, 2021).
Burnout and Job Dissatisfaction: A 2024 survey found that 60% of U.S. physicians experienced burnout, compared to just 40% before the pandemic. Many doctors are considering early retirement or leaving medicine altogether due to administrative burdens, declining autonomy, and increasing workloads (The Physicians Foundation, 2024).
Healthcare Consolidation and Administrative Burden: As hospitals and healthcare organizations merge, many physicians report a loss of control over medical decisions. Fifty percent of doctors who experienced mergers indicated that their job satisfaction worsened. Physicians also spend excessive time on administrative tasks rather than patient care, exacerbating burnout. (The Physicians Foundation, 2024).
How This Impacts Patients
The physician shortage is not just an issue for doctors; it has real consequences for patients:
Delayed treatment times: in some areas, patients wait weeks or months for specialist appointments.
Reduced access to care: Rural communities are particularly affected, with some counties lacking a single primary care physician.
Lower quality of care: Overburdened doctors see more patients per day, increasing the risk of misdiagnosis and medical errors.
Conclusion
The physician shortage is one of the most significant challenges facing the U.S. healthcare system today. Without immediate intervention, the gap between supply and demand will widen, leaving millions of Americans with limited access to timely care.
Citations
Kelly, R. (2024). U.S. physician Workforce Data dashboard. AAMC. https://www.aamc.org/data-reports/report/us-physician-workforce-data-dashboard
Malayala, S. V., Vasireddy, D., Atluri, P., & Alur, R. S. (2021). Primary care shortage in medically underserved and health provider shortage areas: lessons from Delaware, USA. Journal of Primary Care & Community Health, 12, 2150132721994018.
Physician workforce: Projections, 2022-2037. (2024a, November). https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bureau-health-workforce/data-research/physicians-projections-factsheet.pdf
State of the primary care workforce, 2024. (2024, November). https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/files/bureau-health-workforce/state-of-the-primary-care-workforce-report-2024.pdf
The Physicians Foundation, (2024). 2024 survey of America’s current and future physicians. https://physiciansfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2024-Survey-of-Americas-Current-and-Future-Physicians.pdf
